American Weekly Fundamental Outlook 12/10/12 to 12/14/12
Friday, December 7, 2012
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For the coming week, anticipate the Greenback to show relative strength in its currency valuation, as its November payroll employment report climbed stronger than expected at 146,000 with market expectations centered on a modest 85,000. The stronger expectation was mirrored that the weakness in jobless claims emanating from Hurricane sandy would similarly weigh on the payroll employment count.
In the event, this did not materialize with the US Labor Department indicating that the hurricane had no substantive effect. In which workers seems to remain on payrolls, but they continued to work a full week with the hours-worked measures remaining unchanged at 34.4 hours and the measures for the manufacturing sector climbing to 40.6 hours from 40.5 hours.
The separate household survey also indicated unexpected strength with the unemployment rate dropping to 7.7% in November from 7.9% in October. The improvement, however, resulted from a sizeable 350,000 drop in the labor force, which more than offset a 122, 000 declines in household employment.
Furthermore, the report suggests substantial downward revisions to payroll employment earlier months to 138,000 and 132,000 from previously reported levels of 171,000 and 148,000 for October and September, respectively. In addition, this largely resulted from downward revisions to government employment, which is now reported to have fallen by 51,000 in October rather than 13,000, and the increase in September was revised down to 10,000 from 20,000 previously. In November, government employment fell a minimal 1,000. Thus, in terms of private employment, the gain in November of 1467,000 followed increases of 189,000 and 122,000.
Moreover, the increase in the private employment was concentrated in the service-producing jobs where employment rose by 169,000. Most employment component rose led by retail and professional and business services. The increase in the former implies strong hiring going into the Christmas shopping period. Good-producing industries recorded a drop of 22,000 largely reflecting a 20,000 drop in construction although employment in manufacturing also fell by 7,000.
For the coming week, anticipate the Greenback to show relative strength in its currency valuation, as its November payroll employment report climbed stronger than expected at 146,000 with market expectations centered on a modest 85,000. The stronger expectation was mirrored that the weakness in jobless claims emanating from Hurricane sandy would similarly weigh on the payroll employment count.
In the event, this did not materialize with the US Labor Department indicating that the hurricane had no substantive effect. In which workers seems to remain on payrolls, but they continued to work a full week with the hours-worked measures remaining unchanged at 34.4 hours and the measures for the manufacturing sector climbing to 40.6 hours from 40.5 hours.
The separate household survey also indicated unexpected strength with the unemployment rate dropping to 7.7% in November from 7.9% in October. The improvement, however, resulted from a sizeable 350,000 drop in the labor force, which more than offset a 122, 000 declines in household employment.
Furthermore, the report suggests substantial downward revisions to payroll employment earlier months to 138,000 and 132,000 from previously reported levels of 171,000 and 148,000 for October and September, respectively. In addition, this largely resulted from downward revisions to government employment, which is now reported to have fallen by 51,000 in October rather than 13,000, and the increase in September was revised down to 10,000 from 20,000 previously. In November, government employment fell a minimal 1,000. Thus, in terms of private employment, the gain in November of 1467,000 followed increases of 189,000 and 122,000.
Moreover, the increase in the private employment was concentrated in the service-producing jobs where employment rose by 169,000. Most employment component rose led by retail and professional and business services. The increase in the former implies strong hiring going into the Christmas shopping period. Good-producing industries recorded a drop of 22,000 largely reflecting a 20,000 drop in construction although employment in manufacturing also fell by 7,000.
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